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‘Why Do We Always Get Hit First?’ Proposed Budget Cuts Target Vulnerable Californians

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3 years ago

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Shirley Madden, 83, relies on a caregiver and her two grown daughters to remain living at home — and not in a nursing home.

Her daughters, 55-year-old Carrie and 60-year-old Kristy Madden, both use wheelchairs and need a second caregiver to help them navigate their own daily lives.

But that critical caregiving support, along with other health care benefits for millions of Californians, could be scaled back to help plug a massive budget deficit triggered by the coronavirus.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom has proposed sweeping budget cuts to safety-net health care programs ― including Medi-Cal, California’s Medicaid program for low-income people ― just as enrollment is projected to spike because of record job losses related to the pandemic.

Health care experts also fear the cuts could jeopardize billions of dollars in emergency federal health funding allotted to California.

“I understand there’s a pandemic and it’s really bad and everybody is hurting,” said Carrie Madden of Chatsworth, California. Carrie and her sister have muscular dystrophy and their mother is a heart attack survivor who struggles with dementia.

Madden’s fears are compounded by the COVID-19 crisis, which has hit older people and those with chronic health conditions the hardest. She doesn’t want her mother, her sister or herself to end up in a nursing home or other long-term care facility — the settings with the most outbreaks of COVID-19.

“This is the wrong approach,” she said. “This will make disabled people end up in nursing homes.”

States across the country are eyeing Medicaid cuts to balance their budgets, in part because health care is usually the biggest portion of state spending, after education. They also project that more people will sign up for the public health care program, as the number of unemployed Americans hits astronomical heights. More than 20 million Americans filed for unemployment in April, raising the unemployment rate at least to 14.7%, the worst since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

New York approved Medicaid cuts that will take effect after the federal emergency ends, while Georgia has instructed all its agencies to reduce spending by 14%.

In California, where almost 2.9 million people have filed for unemployment in the past two months, Newsom described the proposed budget cuts as “prudent” and “strategic,” a huge pivot from the grand plans he unveiled earlier this year to expand health care to some of the neediest residents.

To address an estimated $54 billion deficit in the 2020-21 state budget, Newsom proposes a $205 million cut — or a 7% reduction in caregiver hours — to the In-Home Supportive Services program the Maddens rely on. The program, primarily funded by Medi-Cal, pays caregivers to make meals for people who need help to live independently, do their laundry, bathe them, administer medical treatments and keep their home clean.

The list of his other proposed cuts is lengthy: He would scale back or eliminate other programs intended to keep low-income seniors and people with disabilities in their own homes, such as adult day health care and support from social workers. He proposes to make it easier for the state to collect posthumous payback from deceased Medi-Cal enrollees 55 and older for a broad range of medical costs through the controversial “Estate Recovery Program.” He suggests reinstituting stricter income requirements for some older people and those with disabilities to qualify for free Medi-Cal.

And he is calling on lawmakers to remove $54.7 million in “optional” Medi-Cal benefits, such as adult podiatry care, eyeglasses, speech therapy and hearing exams — benefits that lawmakers recently restored after they were cut during the last recession.

“These don’t feel optional to people if they have had a stroke or need teeth to eat their food,” said Tricia Berke Vinson, an attorney with the Legal Aid Society of San Mateo County.

“I understand we are in a budget crisis,” she added. “I just don’t think it can be balanced on the old and the sick.”

Physicians, dentists and other health care providers who treat Medi-Cal patients also stand to lose $1.2 billion in supplemental Medi-Cal payments that flow from Proposition 56, a tobacco tax that voters approved in 2016.

The Democratic governor’s proposal includes an automatic “trigger” to restore the cuts if the state gets more federal COVID relief dollars, shifting the responsibility to Congress to negotiate another stimulus package.

Whether lawmakers will make the sweeping Medi-Cal cuts the governor has proposed is uncertain. For example, the state Senate plan preserves Medi-Cal funding and assumes Congress will pass another stimulus bill.

Both houses of the legislature must come to an agreement and present their version of the budget to the governor for consideration by June 15.

“Save these programs and you save lives and money,” said Assembly member Jim Wood (D-Santa Rosa), chair of the Assembly Health Committee. “Cut these programs and costs will increase and lives will be lost.”

Health care experts and some lawmakers also fear Newsom’s approach could jeopardize billions of dollars in emergency federal health funding already allotted to California.

States that drop Medicaid enrollees or reduce benefits risk losing out on additional federal health payments authorized by Congress this spring, said Edwin Park, an expert on Medicaid and a professor at Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy.

“The federal government has said you can’t cut eligibility or disenroll or cut benefits,” Park said. He noted that New York lawmakers delayed their state Medicaid cuts until after the federal emergency ends to ensure they still receive the added federal help now.

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services did not respond to requests for comment. Guidance posted on its website suggests states must keep Medicaid programs intact.

California is expected to receive $5.1 billion in additional federal funding for Medi-Cal through June 30, 2021, according to the proposed budget Newsom released in mid-May.

The Newsom administration is not convinced its Medi-Cal budget cuts will cost the state the additional federal money already approved by Congress.

“There’s never a guarantee until we have that conversation with the federal government. So until then, it’s hard for us to tell what the fed’s going to do,” said Yang Lee, an analyst at the state Department of Finance.

Newsom’s administration predicts about 2 million Californians will sign up for Medi-Cal by July as a result of the pandemic, bringing the program’s enrollment to 14.5 million, more than one-third of all Californians.

The administration anticipates $3.1 billion in added costs to cover the new enrollees. The Legislative Analyst’s Office believes that figure is $750 million too high, in part because new sign-ups will primarily be younger and healthier individuals who do not need as much care as low-income seniors and people with disabilities.

For many current enrollees, Newsom’s proposals would cut into multiple benefits.

Cynde Soto, 63, said it felt like “someone had punched me in the gut” when she heard about the governor’s plan to cut the In-Home Supportive Services budget. As a quadriplegic, the Long Beach resident worries state cutbacks could force her into a nursing home. On top of that, she fears she might lose her Medi-Cal dental and vision care if Newsom’s other cuts are approved.

“I’ve had nightmares about it. I don’t know what I’m going to do,” Soto said. “Why do we always get hit first?”


This KHN story first published on California Healthline, a service of the California Health Care Foundation.

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By: Samantha Young
Title: ‘Why Do We Always Get Hit First?’ Proposed Budget Cuts Target Vulnerable Californians
Sourced From: khn.org/news/why-do-we-always-get-hit-first-proposed-budget-cuts-target-vulnerable-californians/
Published Date: Mon, 01 Jun 2020 09:00:46 +0000

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Ends-of-the-World Every Year Since 1970

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3 years ago

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August 14, 2020

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There always has been and always will be a reason not to invest or not to stay invested. This is all the mainstream media reports to us. Below you will find a list of some of the worst global events each year since 1970. I have some commentary to follow.

1970: War: US troops invade Cambodia.
1971: Civil Unrest: Anti-war militants march on Washington.
1972: Political: Start of Watergate Scandal.
1973: Economic: OPEC raises oil prices in response to US involvement abroad.
1974: Political: Nixon resigns as President of the United States.
1975: Political: Multiple assassination attempts on President Ford.
1976: World: Ebola virus.
1977: Political: Government shutdowns.
1978: Market: U.S. Dollar plunges to record low against many European currencies.
1979: World: Iranian militants seize the U.S. embassy in Teheran and hold hostages.
1980: Economic: Inflation spiked to a high of 14.76%.
1981: Political: President Reagan assassination attempt.
1982: Economic: Recession continues in the U.S. with nationwide unemployment of 10.8%.
1983: Economic: Unemployment in the U.S. reaches 12 million.
1984: Economic: 70 U.S. banks fail during the year.
1985: World: Multiple airplane hijackings around the world.
1986: World: Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station explodes.
1987: Market: DOW drops by 22.6% on October 22.
1988: Environment: Awareness of global warming and the greenhouse effect grows.
1989: Environment: Exxon Valdez dumps 11 million gallons of crude oil into Prince William Sound.
1990: World: Persian Gulf War starts.
1991: World: Mass shooting in Killeen, TX.
1992: Human Rights: Los Angeles riots following the death of Rodney King.
1993: Terrorism: World Trade Center bombing.
1994: World: Mass genocide in Rwanda.
1995: Terrorism: Oklahoma City bombing.
1996: Terrorism: Olympic Park bombing.
1997: World: Bird flu.
1998: World: Multiple U.S. embassy bombings.
1999: World: Columbine shooting.
2000: Economic: Start of the Dotcom Market Crash.
2001: Terrorism: Terrorist Attacks in NYC, DC & PA.
2002: Economic: Nasdaq bottomed after a 76.81% drop.
2003: World: The U.S. invades Iraq.
2004: World: The U.S. launches an attack on Falluja.
2005: World: Hurricane Katrina
2006: World: Bird flu.
2007: Economic: Start of the Great Recession.
2008: Economic: Great Recession continues.
2009: Economic: S&P bottomed after a 56.8% drop.
2010: Market: Flash crash.
2011: Market: Occupy Wall Street and S&P downgrades U.S. Debt.
2012: Political: Fiscal cliff.
2013: Political: Taper tantrum.
2014: World: Ebola virus.
2015: World: Multiple mass shootings.
2016: Political: Divided U.S. Presidential election.
2017: World: North Korea testing nuclear weapons.
2018: Economic: U.S. & China trade war.
2019: Economic: Student loan debt reaches an all-time high of $1.4 trillion.
2020: World: COVID-19.

While many of these events were undoubtedly terrible (and there are certainly others not named here that were worse), most of these were broadcast as end-of-the-world events for the stock market. Despite that attention, it is worth noting that these were, for the most part, one-time events. In other words, most faded into the newspapers of history. We moved on.

Obviously, some caused monumental shifts in the way the world works. Just think about how much air travel continues to be impacted by the events of 9/11. But, outside of the resulting inconveniences (if we want to call safety protocols inconveniences) associated with air travel, flying is safer than ever before.

Take a look at just about any of the events and you will find there are many that people will hardly remember. My point here isn’t that these events are to be ignored or that they were easy to stomach at the time, but that they have become a distant memory.

I want to also make the point that we should expect these types of negative events. As investors, we know these types of crises, economic catastrophes, and global phenomena are going to happen.

But in almost all cases, here is what we can say in the next breath – this too shall pass.

Will there be legal, humanitarian, economic, or some other aid required as a result of these events? Almost certainly the answer is yes, but that doesn’t mean it they won’t eventually fade into history.

Lastly, what’s worth noting is how the market has performed over these last 50 years despite the continual advertisements of the world crashing down around us. On January 2, 1970, the Dow Jones stood at 809 and the S&P at 90 -> those are not typos. These same indexes have grown (not including dividends) to 26,387 and 3,232 respectively. Amazing, no?

Perhaps what gets overlooked more than anything else is what separates the above one-time negative events from the positive stories that go largely ignored over our lifetimes. And that is a story worth telling. See the companion post below:

Unheralded Positive Events Every Year Since 1970

Stay the Course,
Ashby

Retirement Field Guide Mission:

“To help 10 million people make better retirement decisions.”

If you would like to join us in achieving our mission, I hope you will consider sharing our site if you have found it helpful in your own retirement planning.

This post is not advice. Please see additional disclaimers.

The post Ends-of-the-World Every Year Since 1970 appeared first on Retirement Field Guide.

—————–

By: Ashby Daniels, CFP®
Title: Ends-of-the-World Every Year Since 1970
Sourced From: retirementfieldguide.com/ends-of-the-world-every-year-since-1970/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=ends-of-the-world-every-year-since-1970
Published Date: Tue, 04 Aug 2020 13:26:19 +0000

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Wildfire prone property insurance bill in California due for hearing

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3 years ago

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August 14, 2020

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The post Wildfire prone property insurance bill in California due for hearing appeared first on Live Insurance News.

The bill is expected to be heard in upcoming weeks as opposing sites prepare for major battle.

A new California bill, the outcomes of which will have a lot to say about coverage for wildfire prone property in the state, will soon be headed for hearing. The hearing is expected to be a heated one as strong opposing opinions have the opportunity to be voiced.

Opponents of this bill are calling it a direct attack on consumer protections in insurance.

That said, proponents of the bill claim it is the best method for making coverage available to wildfire prone property in California. The bill in question is Assembly Bill 2167. It was written by Assemblyperson Tom Daly (D-Anaheim). If it passes,it will create the Insurance Market Action Plan (IMAP) program. The IMAP program is meant to protect residential properties.

So far, AB 2167 has progressed quickly, when taking into consideration that a chunk of the legislature has been considerably restricted by pandemic crisis precautions. It was first presented in early June and backers have been saying that it was brought forward in good timing and that it has all the momentum it needs to be passed.

That said, AB 2167 has not been without opposition. In fact, it has faced considerable opposition, having been called an attack on Proposition 103, insurance consumer protection law. California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara lobbed that argument at it, calling it an “insurance industry wish list, with nothing to help consumers,” and Consumer Watchdog, whose founder, Harvey Rosenfeld, was the original author of Proposition 103.

The insurance industry strongly supports the bill, saying it will help wildfire prone property coverage.

Insurance organizations such as the American Property Casualty Insurance Association and the Personal Insurance Federation both support AB 2167. The bill also has the support of the California Association of Counties (CSAC), as well as Fire Safe Councils of California, and the CalFIRE union.

The Consumer Federation of America, another watchdog organization, has predicted that if AB 2167 passes, it will cause 40 percent increases in insurance rates. On the other hand, insurance groups claim that the bill offers owners of wildfire prone property a greater opportunity for choice and competition among insurance companies based on coverage and premiums while avoiding the limitations and high costs associated with FAIR Plan coverage.

The post Wildfire prone property insurance bill in California due for hearing appeared first on Live Insurance News.

—————–

By: Marc
Title: Wildfire prone property insurance bill in California due for hearing
Sourced From: www.liveinsurancenews.com/wildfire-prone-property-insurance-bill-in-california-due-for-hearing/8549884/
Published Date: Fri, 14 Aug 2020 09:00:14 +0000

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Is this the last hurrah for bonds?

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3 years ago

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August 13, 2020

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Recently, I have written quite a bit about the long-term return expectations for investing in bonds. See here, here, here and here.

Spoiler alert: I don’t think it’s good.

But long-term bonds this year have been quite an amazing story as the COVID pandemic has caused the Fed to take historically monumental actions. As a result, we’ve watched long-term Treasuries tear the roof off the market. For instance, a 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (name withheld for compliance purposes) is up more than 31% YTD as of July 31st.

That is insane!

But there is a good reason for this increase shown below.

The red circle shows a decrease in the 30-year Treasury rate of almost 40% over a span of six months. That’s practically unprecedented with only two periods (2008 and 1981-1982) having similar declines over such short periods.

But this begs the question: Is this the last hurrah for bonds as a driver of any meaningful return? Below is the 30-Year Treasury rate over the last 40+ years.

For what it’s worth, people have been forecasting the end of the bond bull market since 2012 (maybe even earlier) and yet it has continued despite those predictions. But at some point, the bond party will come to an end.

The Fed has been clear that they are going to keep rates stable until at least 2022 which means this may not change for a little while longer. Or in the near term, I could even see the high returns continuing if we experience pandemic economic shutdown round two.

But, I can’t see a world where this is the case for much longer than that – most importantly over the span of a 30-year retirement.

The official end of the bond bull market depends on a recovery from the pandemic economy as well as a few other factors causing rates to rise. But when they do, it seems likely to me that this may be the last great hurrah for bonds for quite some time.

The question is when to get off that train and that undoubtedly requires a personal answer.

Stay the Course,
Ashby

Retirement Field Guide Mission:

“To help 10 million people make better retirement decisions.”

If you would like to join us in achieving our mission, I hope you will consider sharing our site if you have found it helpful in your own retirement planning.

This post is not advice. Please see additional disclaimers.

The post Is this the last hurrah for bonds? appeared first on Retirement Field Guide.

—————–

By: Ashby Daniels, CFP®
Title: Is this the last hurrah for bonds?
Sourced From: retirementfieldguide.com/is-this-the-last-hurrah-for-bonds/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=is-this-the-last-hurrah-for-bonds
Published Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2020 13:47:16 +0000

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