Retirement Planning
The Stock Market and Predictions

Predictably unpredictable and unpredictably predictable. This is the market in a nutshell.
The markets are predictably unpredictable because the market has a way of surprising the greatest number of people. Few people (nobody) saw the market returning 29% in 2019. I realize that’s a distant memory now, but it was still surprising, to say the least. Just as surely, nobody saw an economic shutdown caused by a global pandemic that resulted in the swiftest recession in stock market history. And maybe even more surprisingly, nobody predicted an almost immediate market recovery to follow.
The market has a way of surprising us on a regular basis. It is a long-term trendline up, punctuated by short-term and sometimes drastic, downturns.
We know this to be true and yet we continue to be surprised by it. The market is going to go through temporary downturns. On an intra-year average, the market falls about 15% each year and about 35% every four years. Those temporary periods can be paralyzing even when we know to expect these sorts of events. It is predictably unpredictable.
Yet, the market is also unpredictably predictable. We don’t know the path the market will take, but at least historically, we know the market has followed that trendline up and to the right.
Even if we look at two twenty-year periods that started with a flat initial decade, we can see that the market was remarkably resilient. Using the calculator, S&P 500 At Your Fingertips, from January 1968 through January 1988, the total return of the S&P 500, adjusted for inflation, was 2.85%. (Nominal return of 9.33%)
And from January 1999 through January 2019, the total return of the S&P 500, adjusted for inflation, was 3.46%. (Nominal return of 5.69%) –> Notice how the nominal return is much lower than above, but the real return is actually higher. This is why I tend to focus on real returns, not nominal returns.

The market is remarkably resilient in the long run. Or as I would say, unpredictably predictable. We don’t know the timing of it all, but it doesn’t mean we should lose faith when these short-term catastrophes begin to take hold of our emotions.
From where we stand right now, retirees now are starting to project ahead. Should we keep our market return expectations the same or should we back them off? What does that mean for your retirement?
I believe it is prudent to adjust your expectations. I am not saying returns in the future will be lower, but they might be. If they are, are you prepared? Do you need to work a little longer? Have you saved enough? If you choose to take some chips off the table, does that squander your security in the long-run?
There are many questions to be asked. What if a COVID vaccine doesn’t come around within a year and the waves of economic shutdowns continue? What then?
With the markets getting close to pre-COVID levels, now is a great time to stress-test your retirement income plan. If you are financially prepared for those short-term uncertainties, you may be less apt to react as the news continues to develop and beyond.
Stay the Course,
Ashby
Retirement Field Guide Mission:
“To help 10 million people make better retirement decisions.”
If you would like to play a part in achieving our mission, I hope you will consider sharing our site if you have found it helpful in your own retirement planning.
This post is not advice. Please see additional disclaimers.
The post The Stock Market and Predictions appeared first on Retirement Field Guide.
—————–
By: Ashby Daniels, CFP®
Title: The Stock Market and Predictions
Sourced From: retirementfieldguide.com/the-stock-market-and-predictions/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=the-stock-market-and-predictions
Published Date: Mon, 13 Jul 2020 12:34:00 +0000
Did you miss our previous article…
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Retirement Planning
Ends-of-the-World Every Year Since 1970

There always has been and always will be a reason not to invest or not to stay invested. This is all the mainstream media reports to us. Below you will find a list of some of the worst global events each year since 1970. I have some commentary to follow.
1970: War: US troops invade Cambodia.
1971: Civil Unrest: Anti-war militants march on Washington.
1972: Political: Start of Watergate Scandal.
1973: Economic: OPEC raises oil prices in response to US involvement abroad.
1974: Political: Nixon resigns as President of the United States.
1975: Political: Multiple assassination attempts on President Ford.
1976: World: Ebola virus.
1977: Political: Government shutdowns.
1978: Market: U.S. Dollar plunges to record low against many European currencies.
1979: World: Iranian militants seize the U.S. embassy in Teheran and hold hostages.
1980: Economic: Inflation spiked to a high of 14.76%.
1981: Political: President Reagan assassination attempt.
1982: Economic: Recession continues in the U.S. with nationwide unemployment of 10.8%.
1983: Economic: Unemployment in the U.S. reaches 12 million.
1984: Economic: 70 U.S. banks fail during the year.
1985: World: Multiple airplane hijackings around the world.
1986: World: Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station explodes.
1987: Market: DOW drops by 22.6% on October 22.
1988: Environment: Awareness of global warming and the greenhouse effect grows.
1989: Environment: Exxon Valdez dumps 11 million gallons of crude oil into Prince William Sound.
1990: World: Persian Gulf War starts.
1991: World: Mass shooting in Killeen, TX.
1992: Human Rights: Los Angeles riots following the death of Rodney King.
1993: Terrorism: World Trade Center bombing.
1994: World: Mass genocide in Rwanda.
1995: Terrorism: Oklahoma City bombing.
1996: Terrorism: Olympic Park bombing.
1997: World: Bird flu.
1998: World: Multiple U.S. embassy bombings.
1999: World: Columbine shooting.
2000: Economic: Start of the Dotcom Market Crash.
2001: Terrorism: Terrorist Attacks in NYC, DC & PA.
2002: Economic: Nasdaq bottomed after a 76.81% drop.
2003: World: The U.S. invades Iraq.
2004: World: The U.S. launches an attack on Falluja.
2005: World: Hurricane Katrina
2006: World: Bird flu.
2007: Economic: Start of the Great Recession.
2008: Economic: Great Recession continues.
2009: Economic: S&P bottomed after a 56.8% drop.
2010: Market: Flash crash.
2011: Market: Occupy Wall Street and S&P downgrades U.S. Debt.
2012: Political: Fiscal cliff.
2013: Political: Taper tantrum.
2014: World: Ebola virus.
2015: World: Multiple mass shootings.
2016: Political: Divided U.S. Presidential election.
2017: World: North Korea testing nuclear weapons.
2018: Economic: U.S. & China trade war.
2019: Economic: Student loan debt reaches an all-time high of $1.4 trillion.
2020: World: COVID-19.
While many of these events were undoubtedly terrible (and there are certainly others not named here that were worse), most of these were broadcast as end-of-the-world events for the stock market. Despite that attention, it is worth noting that these were, for the most part, one-time events. In other words, most faded into the newspapers of history. We moved on.
Obviously, some caused monumental shifts in the way the world works. Just think about how much air travel continues to be impacted by the events of 9/11. But, outside of the resulting inconveniences (if we want to call safety protocols inconveniences) associated with air travel, flying is safer than ever before.
Take a look at just about any of the events and you will find there are many that people will hardly remember. My point here isn’t that these events are to be ignored or that they were easy to stomach at the time, but that they have become a distant memory.
I want to also make the point that we should expect these types of negative events. As investors, we know these types of crises, economic catastrophes, and global phenomena are going to happen.
But in almost all cases, here is what we can say in the next breath – this too shall pass.
Will there be legal, humanitarian, economic, or some other aid required as a result of these events? Almost certainly the answer is yes, but that doesn’t mean it they won’t eventually fade into history.
Lastly, what’s worth noting is how the market has performed over these last 50 years despite the continual advertisements of the world crashing down around us. On January 2, 1970, the Dow Jones stood at 809 and the S&P at 90 -> those are not typos. These same indexes have grown (not including dividends) to 26,387 and 3,232 respectively. Amazing, no?
Perhaps what gets overlooked more than anything else is what separates the above one-time negative events from the positive stories that go largely ignored over our lifetimes. And that is a story worth telling. See the companion post below:
Unheralded Positive Events Every Year Since 1970
Stay the Course,
Ashby
Retirement Field Guide Mission:
“To help 10 million people make better retirement decisions.”
If you would like to join us in achieving our mission, I hope you will consider sharing our site if you have found it helpful in your own retirement planning.
This post is not advice. Please see additional disclaimers.
The post Ends-of-the-World Every Year Since 1970 appeared first on Retirement Field Guide.
—————–
By: Ashby Daniels, CFP®
Title: Ends-of-the-World Every Year Since 1970
Sourced From: retirementfieldguide.com/ends-of-the-world-every-year-since-1970/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=ends-of-the-world-every-year-since-1970
Published Date: Tue, 04 Aug 2020 13:26:19 +0000
Did you miss our previous article…
https://getinvestmentadvise.com/retirement-planning/wildfire-prone-property-insurance-bill-in-california-due-for-hearing/
Retirement Planning
Wildfire prone property insurance bill in California due for hearing

The post Wildfire prone property insurance bill in California due for hearing appeared first on Live Insurance News.
The bill is expected to be heard in upcoming weeks as opposing sites prepare for major battle.
A new California bill, the outcomes of which will have a lot to say about coverage for wildfire prone property in the state, will soon be headed for hearing. The hearing is expected to be a heated one as strong opposing opinions have the opportunity to be voiced.
Opponents of this bill are calling it a direct attack on consumer protections in insurance.
That said, proponents of the bill claim it is the best method for making coverage available to wildfire prone property in California. The bill in question is Assembly Bill 2167. It was written by Assemblyperson Tom Daly (D-Anaheim). If it passes,it will create the Insurance Market Action Plan (IMAP) program. The IMAP program is meant to protect residential properties.
So far, AB 2167 has progressed quickly, when taking into consideration that a chunk of the legislature has been considerably restricted by pandemic crisis precautions. It was first presented in early June and backers have been saying that it was brought forward in good timing and that it has all the momentum it needs to be passed.
That said, AB 2167 has not been without opposition. In fact, it has faced considerable opposition, having been called an attack on Proposition 103, insurance consumer protection law. California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara lobbed that argument at it, calling it an “insurance industry wish list, with nothing to help consumers,” and Consumer Watchdog, whose founder, Harvey Rosenfeld, was the original author of Proposition 103.
The insurance industry strongly supports the bill, saying it will help wildfire prone property coverage.
Insurance organizations such as the American Property Casualty Insurance Association and the Personal Insurance Federation both support AB 2167. The bill also has the support of the California Association of Counties (CSAC), as well as Fire Safe Councils of California, and the CalFIRE union.
The Consumer Federation of America, another watchdog organization, has predicted that if AB 2167 passes, it will cause 40 percent increases in insurance rates. On the other hand, insurance groups claim that the bill offers owners of wildfire prone property a greater opportunity for choice and competition among insurance companies based on coverage and premiums while avoiding the limitations and high costs associated with FAIR Plan coverage.
The post Wildfire prone property insurance bill in California due for hearing appeared first on Live Insurance News.
—————–
By: Marc
Title: Wildfire prone property insurance bill in California due for hearing
Sourced From: www.liveinsurancenews.com/wildfire-prone-property-insurance-bill-in-california-due-for-hearing/8549884/
Published Date: Fri, 14 Aug 2020 09:00:14 +0000
Did you miss our previous article…
https://getinvestmentadvise.com/retirement-planning/is-this-the-last-hurrah-for-bonds/
Retirement Planning
Is this the last hurrah for bonds?

Recently, I have written quite a bit about the long-term return expectations for investing in bonds. See here, here, here and here.
Spoiler alert: I don’t think it’s good.
But long-term bonds this year have been quite an amazing story as the COVID pandemic has caused the Fed to take historically monumental actions. As a result, we’ve watched long-term Treasuries tear the roof off the market. For instance, a 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (name withheld for compliance purposes) is up more than 31% YTD as of July 31st.
That is insane!
But there is a good reason for this increase shown below.
The red circle shows a decrease in the 30-year Treasury rate of almost 40% over a span of six months. That’s practically unprecedented with only two periods (2008 and 1981-1982) having similar declines over such short periods.
But this begs the question: Is this the last hurrah for bonds as a driver of any meaningful return? Below is the 30-Year Treasury rate over the last 40+ years.

For what it’s worth, people have been forecasting the end of the bond bull market since 2012 (maybe even earlier) and yet it has continued despite those predictions. But at some point, the bond party will come to an end.
The Fed has been clear that they are going to keep rates stable until at least 2022 which means this may not change for a little while longer. Or in the near term, I could even see the high returns continuing if we experience pandemic economic shutdown round two.
But, I can’t see a world where this is the case for much longer than that – most importantly over the span of a 30-year retirement.
The official end of the bond bull market depends on a recovery from the pandemic economy as well as a few other factors causing rates to rise. But when they do, it seems likely to me that this may be the last great hurrah for bonds for quite some time.
The question is when to get off that train and that undoubtedly requires a personal answer.
Stay the Course,
Ashby
Retirement Field Guide Mission:
“To help 10 million people make better retirement decisions.”
If you would like to join us in achieving our mission, I hope you will consider sharing our site if you have found it helpful in your own retirement planning.
This post is not advice. Please see additional disclaimers.
The post Is this the last hurrah for bonds? appeared first on Retirement Field Guide.
—————–
By: Ashby Daniels, CFP®
Title: Is this the last hurrah for bonds?
Sourced From: retirementfieldguide.com/is-this-the-last-hurrah-for-bonds/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=is-this-the-last-hurrah-for-bonds
Published Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2020 13:47:16 +0000
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