One of the keys to sound investing is having the right information. Its everywhere around us; we just need to know where to look. One of my preferred methods for finding new facts and for learning is to listen to podcasts and you can’t go past Columbia Business School’s Podcast series: ‘Value Investing with Legends.’
I enjoyed their recent interview with Polen Capital’s Dan Davidowitz and Jeff Mueller. Polen Capital’s track record of outperformance over three decades stems from their ownership of high quality businesses. I’d put them in the class of investor with the likes of Chuck Akre, Nick Train, Terry Smith, Francois Rochon, Paul Black and Nicholas Sleep, who’ve earned their returns from the compounding power of the underlying businesses they’ve chosen to own. These ‘compounding machines’ are often large well-known businesses, each with enduring competitive advantages that support high returns on capital, defying capitalism’s reversion to the mean. Rather than focus on buying cheap and selling higher, these successful investors ride the exponential curve these great companies create. While these stocks may not appear optically cheap, it’s the power of compounding that can render them structurally undervalued for long periods of time.
The podcast reminded me of some useful mental models that only surface from time to time, some of my favourites were the need for a long runway for growth, ‘Culture’ as a competitive advantage, the concept of ‘Attacking the Moat’, and the lollapalooza effect of many competitive advantages working together.
I’ve included some notes below:
“The first take away is that nearly all compounders have high returns on capital and high returns on equity. Capitalism is a brutal place and if you don’t have the comparative advantage to protect your high returns, new entrants are going to come in and eat away that competitive advantage.
The fact a company sustains high returns is a signal. The necessary condition is the competitive advantage – the high return on equity or capital is typically the output. All compounders tend to have high returns on capital but not all companies with high returns on capital are compounders. That’s important because it means you can’t just run a screen and buy. There is real critical thought and judgement required.
The second takeaway, is that P/E multiples that are optically expensive are often very cheap prices for compounders. No matter how many decimal places you go out to in excel, you’re not going to find critical judgement in a spreadsheet. So a clear understanding of a compounders’ sources of competitive advantage is critical for owning one for long periods of time. You have to have a competitive advantage and that has to be rock solid. It has to exist and be sustainable.
Oftentimes for compounders you need low total addressable market penetration, ideally in a very large total addressable market and even more ideally, in one that is growing. This is often an enabler of reinvesting free cash flow at high incremental returns on each dollar invested. The very act of redeploying this capital back in the business at higher returns not only enables the compounding but it also serves to improve, expand and extend the business’ competitive advantages if allocated properly.” Jeff Mueller
“Structurally with the market, it’s very rare that even the third year of earnings is priced into these business [compounders] let alone the fifth, seventh or tenth year. When you find these companies with real durability that can compound for long period of time, the optically high multiple, when in hindsight that was a smoking deal five years ago” Jeff Mueller
What is Value?
“What does ‘value’ mean today? It doesn’t necessarily mean low PE or low price to book. That style of investing is increasingly difficult because it’s easier to arbitrage away. It’s easier in a modern age of technology and speed of networks and information to find big outliers before they become really big outliers. I think that’s why you’re finding less opportunity in the so-called cheap, deep value places and where you are seeing them is usually in structurally challenged industries.
Our definition of ‘value investing’ is not just finding companies at a discount to intrinsic value but a permanence to their business and a margin of safety much more tied to the strength of their financials, and a massive competitive advantage and some big secular tailwind usually being created by the company itself that is driving them over the long term.
The market has a hard time discounting properly great growth companies. They have a really hard time putting a near term PE multiple on a company that can grow earnings at 15-20% for ten, fifteen, twenty years. So we find those companies to be structurally undervalued a lot of the time even though their near term multiples look relatively high.” Jeff Mueller
“Using the term ‘value investing’ became a loaded term a long time ago. If you ask me, I’m not a value investor, I’m a growth investor. But it doesn’t really matter. They are two sides of the same coin. We are all searching for the same thing – people want to buy companies at a discount to their intrinsic value and benefit from the growth in that intrinsic value. I think there are plenty of opportunities. We invest in some of the biggest most well-followed companies in the most efficient market in the world. If we can do it, I can imagine there are other people. We are not the brightest people on the planet.” Dan Davidowitz
“The industry is structurally built for the short term. How many people are engaged every day are ‘calling the quarter?’ We are playing a different game. We have a five year time horizon and beyond.” Jeff Mueller
“The first thing we do is really take our time. Our average holding period is a little over five years. This gives you plenty of time to do the research and do diligence on all the companies that might be in the on-deck circle. In 2015, we worked on Adobe for 15 months. Taking your time is critical in assessing the sustainability of competitive advantages.”
“Competitive advantages come in many forms. There are network effects; Facebook is a terrific example. I would say culture is a competitive advantage that a lot of people would probably take issue with me mentioning because it can’t be measured. But you look at O’Reilly or Rawlins – phenomenal cultures. Intellectual property, like Align Technology, or biotech companies like Allergan. Switching costs can be a competitive advantage; Microsoft 365 or Oracle. It’s been said switching off Oracle is like dental surgery without anesthesia. Economies of Scale and Monopolies and Brands are other examples. Business Model Innovation like Vail resorts. They come in many forms.” Jeff Mueller
“There’s this song by Blink 182 called ‘All the Small Things’. For some reason when I think about competitive advantages it pops into my head. The best compounders I’ve studied and the best ones we’ve invested in don’t just have one competitive advantage where you point to it and say ‘yep, that’s it’. They usually have built this mosaic pulling from almost all the competitive advantages; they have networks, and a great culture, and a safe or aspirational brand and also economies of scale. When you get a lot of these working in the same direction it makes the companies almost impossible to really compete with out in the market place.” Jeff Mueller
Keep It Simple
“We’re trying to do it the easiest possible way. We’re not looking to discover the undiscovered gem. We are looking for very very obvious competitive advantages. They are no secrets. You’re going to know most of those companies [we own]. They are well covered. Yet still, there’s great opportunities in those companies. We are looking to get the compounding of earnings growth and hopefully the returns in the easiest possible way with the most advantaged companies. It sounds a little too good to be true you can do it that way, but we’ve been doing it for thirty years and it’s still there”. Dan Davidowitz
“We’ve only owned 123 companies in 31 years and that includes the 21 we own today. The compounding is really what drive the returns. You align yourself with 20 or 25 great companies that can compound for not just years but decades oftentimes and they do the hard work for you. You can sit back and spend your time getting to know the companies. We’re getting the same information as everybody else. We are usually asking much longer term questions as we want to understand long term strategy. We don’t care about this quarter or next quarters earnings. We care about where the company is going over the long term.” Jeff Mueller
“You cannot invest in businesses that go very wrong. You need to stay in the game and compound; that is the name of the game. That’s why we try to keep things relatively simple and straightforward and respect our guardrails. The compounding is not that hard as long a you don’t do anything stupid.” Dan Davidowitz
Humility / No Perfection
“The more you know, you start to realise there is a lot more that you don’t. That’s an enlightened place to be. You can study and study companies but you’re never going to know everything you’d like to know. You’re going to know a fraction of what an insider knows and they don’t know everything either. You have to be careful because you’re never going to know everything. So for us it’s a never ending quest for knowledge on our companies. Everyday you have to try to keep finding more and more about the companies you want to know more about.” Jeff Mueller
“There is a theory you can’t truly know the moat or barriers to entry exist until that moat is attacked and the attack is repelled. The bigger and more well-capitalised the attacker the better. I think of capitalism like nature, it’s just a brutal place; these attacks are happening all the time. This isn’t a concept that has any absolutism but I do think it is a useful tool. When these things happen there is something probably there. We don’t have any blackboxes at Polen. You can open up the Financial Times and see that there is a large company attacking a company or partnering with a company to attack a company and investigate it, ask Why?” Jeff Mueller
“Which guard rail is the most important? There is a lot of simplicity around our five guard rails. ROE of 20% or greater sustained is a real signal there is something special going on. You know mathematically you could add leverage and really juice the ROE, so the fact the majority of our companies are in a net cash position and also have sustainable ROE of 20% or greater is a pretty special group of companies. Munger said the number one rule of fishing is ‘fish where the fish are’. These guard rails take us down to the pond we like to fish in. In difficult times like this, not only can our companies go on the defensive, but a lot of their competitors are twisting and turning trying to avoid debt covenants in a credit stressed environment. So by widening the gap, they are even more advantaged relative to people who have become less disciplined with their balance sheets.” Jeff Mueller
“I think about the world in pretty simple terms. The one thing that hasn’t changed is that behind a lot of the movements in markets are humans and human behaviour. That is important to know because you can take advantage of opportunities when human behaviour drives companies valuations to places they shouldn’t go either on the upside or downside.”
“Things change in the real world. Competitive advantages change, the way humans behave changes. It requires good thought and pragmatic thought to figure out which companies are going to benefit. You don’t need to find 1,000’s of good ideas. A handful is all you have to find.” Dan Davidowitz
There are some critical mental models in this; things to look for when you’re searching for those great businesses. Polen’s Guardrails such as a sustainable ROE of >20% and a strong balance sheet, taking a long term view when looking at a company’s future earnings rather than those to be found in the next quarter, and a business having a host of competitive advantages rather than just one. Even more interesting, a large number of the underlying success factors described by Polen can’t be found in a spreadsheet: Culture, Human Behaviour, Critical Thought and Judgement, and Humility are some good examples of those.
Oh, and when searching for and assessing high quality businesses they like to keep it simple. Like Munger has said: ‘the number one rule of fishing is ‘fish where the fish are’.
Follow us on Twitter: @mastersinvest
Note: This post is for educational purposes only. I have no relationship with Polen Capital or Columbia Business School.
Read more awesome articles like this one on VintageValueInvesting.com!
Read more great articles at Vintage Value Investing.
Title: Learning from Polen Capital
Sourced From: www.vintagevalueinvesting.com/learning-from-polen-capital/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=learning-from-polen-capital
Published Date: Mon, 01 Jun 2020 19:34:58 +0000
Did you miss our previous article…
Are These Marijuana Stocks Built For Long Or Short Term Success?
Would You Invest In These Marijuana Stocks In 2021?
For the last several month’s investors have found a renewed interest in marijuana stocks. From mid-2020 to currently in 2021 cannabis stocks have been on the move. Many pot stocks from various niches have been rising in the market. Some marijuana stocks have not only reported record earnings but some have seen back-to-back all-time highs. With the amount of money being invested with the hopes of federal cannabis reform, people are trying to jump on board before the boat leaves the dock.
The cannabis sector as a whole has been on fire. Many companies in the cannabis industry have been preparing for what’s next to come. Meaning most cannabis companies are making operational adjustments to be able to adapt to the future of the cannabis industry. For example, 2 big-time cannabis companies both teamed up to make the biggest cannabis company on earth. Tilray Inc. and Aphria Inc. joined forces which have helped both companies market performance to a degree.
As well other companies have taken notice and may follow the same path. A lot is changing for the cannabis industry between legislation, more states going legal, and new regulations. All these variables play a factor in how this sentiment impacts the market. With more positive sentiment taking hold of the market is reflects in how well some marijuana stocks trade.
So far in 2021 cannabis stocks are moving up and seeing overall bigger gains. For this reason, many new and seasoned investors are looking to get involved and make some money. The cannabis industry is one of the fastest-growing markets in the world that is continuously expanding. The 2 cannabis stocks below are examples of when the sector is trending it resonates well with how marijuana stocks can or will trade.
Pot Stock Watch List This Month
Green Lane Holdigns Inc.
Green Lane Holdigns Inc. has been of the many marijuana stocks trying to climb higher in a volatile market. Back in 202 GNLN stock saw its price fluctuate quite often. This price fluctuation allowed for good entry points before GNLN stock had a spike in trading. Like many marijuana stocks, 2021 gave the cannabis market a nice push to start the new year. With Green Lane 2021 was no different.
In the first 2 weeks of the new year, GNLN stock shot up 25 percent in trading as it was starting to dip from this point. Even though Green Lane closed out the first month of the new year with a drop from previous highs in January the following month was a different story. Currently GNLN stock in February has been able to recover from January’s dip.
The company has been able to even reach higher highs than last month. Within the first trading week of February, GNLN stock saw gains of 27 percent. This was a much-needed momentum booster to help the company recover from its trading at the close of January. So far for in February GNLN stock has had a nice upward push in the market showing over 60 percent gains in trading. This current momentum has signaled to investors that Green Lane may be a marijuana stock to watch in 2021.
- 3 Top Marijuana Stocks To Watch This Year
- Will Cannabis Stocks See A Rise In Trading With Chuck Schumer Push For Federal Cannabis Legislation?
Liberty Health Sciences Inc.
Liberty Health Sciences Inc. has been an interesting cannabis stock to watch. Like many other cannabis businesses, it’s going to take more than a pandemic to stop the company from expanding. Back in January, the company announced that it will be opening a new location adding to its current portfolio of dispensaries. The Company plans to open two more dispensaries by the end of February 2021 with much more in the works.
Although in 2020 LHSIF stock traded mostly sideways with subtle spikes in trading the new year has provided a strong push in trading. Starting from December 21st LHSIF stock started to bounce and began to climb in the market. From the 21st to the 31st of December LHSIF stock shot up 90 percent. For those who held their position until this point, they made a healthy return on their investment. Pushing into the new year the company was able to sustain its market momentum and keep pushing up in the market.
In the first 14 days of trading of the new year LHSIF stock has a 13 percent increase in trading. The remainder of January’s trading resulted in a small dip. Yet overall gains for the first month of 2021 for LHSIF stock was an increase of 8 percent. This was a subtle push that helped the company sustain its current market position. Now that we have entered February LHSIF has continued to trade up in the market. Currently for the month of February LHSIF stock is up over 25 percent. If the company can continue this momentum it would intrigue more people to keep an eye on this marijuana stock.
By: Daniel Chase
Title: Are These Marijuana Stocks Built For Long Or Short Term Success?
Sourced From: marijuanastocks.com/are-these-marijuana-stocks-built-for-long-or-short-term-success/
Published Date: Thu, 11 Feb 2021 13:30:07 +0000
Did you miss our previous article…
Price to Earnings Ratio Defined (P/E Ratio Formula)
Trying your hand at the stock market? Chances are, you’ve come across the term “P/E ratio”. If you’re like many who are new to the stock market, you’ve looked at this phrase and asked yourself, “What in the world is that?”
P/E ratio, otherwise known as the price-to-earnings ratio, is a formula that investors use to determine the value of a company’s share. It is one of the most common formulas used to determine the value of a stock. The formula compares the price of a company’s share to the earnings per share (EPS) of the company in order to determine how much an investor is paying for $1 of the company’s earnings. Let’s take a deeper dive into the P/E formula. Use the links below to jump ahead to a section of your choosing.
P/E Formula and Calculation
First thing’s first: let’s learn the price to earnings ratio formula and how to calculate it. The price-to-earnings ratio formula is as follows: the price of a single share of a company’s stock (What is a stock?), divided by the company’s earnings per share (EPS). The ratio of these two variables will tell you exactly how much an investor is spending for a single dollar of the company’s earnings.
Finding the cost of a company’s stock is extremely simple. In order to find the price of a single share of a company’s stock, all you need to do is enter the company’s stock ticker symbol (the series of characters that represents that company on the stock market) into a finance website, such as investor.gov. You’ll quickly find the current cost for a single share of that company’s stock. Google also keeps an up-to-date Market Summary for the prior day’s stock market, so a quick Google search will often bring exactly the answer you’re looking for.
Determining a company’s earnings per share (EPS) can be a bit trickier. Earnings per share are broken down into 2 categories: trailing earnings and forward earnings. Trailing earnings, often shortened to TTM, are the company’s core earnings over the trailing, or prior, 12 months. This number is the profit that the company has generated over the past 12 months of business. Remember that we’re talking about the net income of a business, rather than the gross income (Need a refresher? Learn more about gross income vs net income.). P/E ratios calculated with trailing earnings are known as the trailing P/E (P/E TTM). Forward earnings, on the other hand, are the predicted earnings that the company will generate over the next 12 months. P/E ratios calculated using forward earnings are known as the forward P/E. Both types of earnings are divided by the total number of public shares on the market in order to generate their EPS. More on this later.
Let’s try out an example. Say you’re looking to determine the trailing P/E of a fictional company AlphaBet Corporation, known on the stock market as ABC. Their share price is currently at $50 per share. Their trailing earnings per share is $5. Divide the $50 per share by the $5 EPS, and you’re left with a P/E of 10. This means that investors are paying $10 for every $1 in earnings per share.
Understanding P/E Ratio
So, ABC has a P/E of 10. What does that mean for you?
In the most general sense, the lower a P/E ratio, the less an investor is paying for each dollar of a company’s earnings per share. A higher P/E ratio means that an investor is paying more per EPS. But, unfortunately, determining which stock to buy isn’t as simple as “look for the lowest P/E ratio”.
It is imperative to remember that everything on the stock market is relative. “Good” and “bad” numbers are different for each and every industry. An electronics company and an automotive company are functioning in two vastly different landscapes. Therefore, in order to determine what is a good price to earnings ratio, you’ll need to understand the landscape of P/E ratios in the industry. Look at similar companies’ P/E ratios to better understand the relative value of your company’s P/E ratio. If ABC’s price-to-earnings ratio seems extremely high as compared to other companies in the industry, it may be an overvalued stock. On the other hand, if it seems extremely low as compared to other companies in the industry, it may be a very valuable stock.
Let’s try another example. We’ve already determined that ABC’s price is $50 per share, earnings are $5 per share, and P/E is 10. A competitor, DOG, also has stock for $50 per share. Their earnings, on the other hand, are $2 per share, making their PE 25 (50/2=25). An investor would pay $10 for every $1 of ABC’s earnings per share, but they’d have to pay $25 for every $1 of DOG’s earnings per share. With a better understanding of the landscape, we can see how ABC sits relative to its competitors.
A company’s price to earnings ratio may also be looked at relative to itself. Remember those two types of earnings we reviewed earlier? We can compare a company’s trailing P/E to their forward P/E to better understand the value of a stock. A company with a high trailing P/E ratio may have been rather unprofitable the prior 12 months because theywere preparing to ramp up business substantially, and took on a number of upfront costs. They may be expecting a boom of profits over the forward 12 months, leaving them with a substantially lower forward P/E. By reviewing these numbers in comparison to each other, we may see an opportunity for a long-term investment.
Limitations of the P/E Ratio
While the price to earnings ratio is certainly one of the most widely used calculations among stock market investors and analysts, it’s not a cut and dry way to determine a good or bad stock. It gives investors a good understanding of the value of stock in a particular moment, but it certainly has its short-comings.
Just as the stock market is relative, it’s also in a constant state of fluctuation. It is re-evaluated and recalculated constantly. Why does this matter when it comes to the price to earnings ratio? Well, just look at the variables we use to determine the P/E ratio.
First, we have the “price” of the price-to-earnings ratio: the cost of a single share of a company’s stock. Stock prices fluctuate every single day based on supply, demand, current events, and more. Typically, the cost of a company’s stock will be reported as the cost that it was when the stock market closed the prior day. Each time a company’s stock price changes, their P/E ratio will change. Certain companies may tend to have a greater fundamental volatility than others, leaving their stock price changing substantially each and every day. Even those with low fundamental volatility experience routine fluctuation.
Next, we have the “earnings” in the price-to-earnings ratio. Both trailing and forward P/E ratios have their limitations. Trailing P/E can feel like the more reliable of the two numbers because it’s based on facts. We take their actual earnings over the prior 12 months into account. But, in many situations, a company’s prior 12 months may have little to do with their next 12 months. As mentioned earlier, a company may have spent heavy the prior 12 months in preparation to ramp up the next 12 months. The trailing P/E won’t show us any of that. The forward P/E, on the other hand, is based on predictions. And predictions are quite educated guesses, but at the end of the day predictions are still guesses. A company may fall short of their predicted earnings or blow completely past them.
Looking to try your hand at the stock market? Don’t go at it alone. Consider opening an investment account with Mint. We believe that there’s no “one-size-fits-all” approach to investment. That’s why we offer a variety of investment partners, suited to each particular need. Let’s find the best to suit yours.
The post Price to Earnings Ratio Defined (P/E Ratio Formula) appeared first on MintLife Blog.
Title: Price to Earnings Ratio Defined (P/E Ratio Formula)
Sourced From: mint.intuit.com/blog/investing/price-earnings-ratio/
Published Date: Tue, 25 Aug 2020 19:37:02 +0000
Did you miss our previous article…
Will Marijuana Banking Be Apart Of Federal Cannabis Reform?
The Cannabis Industry VS Financial Institutions
As marijuana stocks and the cannabis industry as a whole awaits federal cannabis reform the sector keeps trending. Now if the U.S. can federally decriminalize cannabis some analysts feel it may cause some cannabis stocks to rally. As well as many new doors will that can open. For one many new markets will look to join the U.S. cannabis industry. Furthermore, with federal cannabis reform, it could be the start of initiating a banking system for the industry.
Currently due to cannabis still being federally illegal banks can not take money from a cannabis-related business. From the time states started going legal, it has been an issue that has yet to be resolved. The cannabis industry is one of the fastest-growing industries in the world, especially in the United States. Politicians have been working to pass various pieces of cannabis legislation.
The one bill that would be beneficial to the industry is known as the SAFE Banking Act. This bill would allow banks to accept money from cannabis-related businesses. On March 7, 2019, the bill was introduced to the U.S. House of Representatives by Ed Perlmutter and was introduced to the Judiciary and Financial Services Committees. Back in 2019, the Financial Services Committee voted 45 to 15 to advance the bill to the full House.
The SAFE Banking Act provisions were included in the HEROES Act COVID-19 relief bill passed in the U.S. House in May 2020. They were again included in a bill approved by the house 214–207 in October. A push to include the SAFE Banking Act provisions in the end-of-year COVID-19 stimulus failed, though hope remained it could pass in 2021 if reintroduced.
How Will The Cannabis Industry Work With Banks
When it comes to any business you can think having startup capital is important. Now not every person with money is willing to invest in a new venture which makes finding that more of a task. Especially with cannabis-related business and right now banks are no help. For a business to acquire a line of credit or some type of lending your business must be able to have some type of financial record.
This usually tells banks and lenders how good you are at paying things back and how reliable you are to do so. The bigger obstacle for cannabis businesses is how do you show you are trustworthy with no credit history. Once again this due to financial institutions not working with cannabis businesses. Let’s look at a few steps to help jump over some red tape.
First, you should start a new business that is a separate company from your personal credit. This will help when it comes time to do your taxes. The second step to take is you need to register for your EIN number. Next thing to do is open a new bank account and make sure you can show that you have continuous income which shows financial stability. Again with banks not accepting cannabis money the last step may be next to impossible to do.
- Are You Up To Date On The Cannabis Industry In 2021?
- Are These The Best Marijuana Stocks To Buy For Long Term Cannabis Investments?
Will Cannabis Banking Actually Happen?
The way financial institutions offer other industries various banking options is not the same for the cannabis industry. Although there is some grey area with cannabis and banks yet most banks won’t offer services for how high risk the industry is. This leaves many cannabis businesses left out from what other traditional retail businesses would have. Look past the risk banks also look at taking cannabis money as to much work. This would result in following regulations and keeping data on all money. This process has been established by the Bank Secrecy Act of 1970. Also, working with the large amounts of cash cannabis businesses generate may affect how a bank can operate.
With this roadblock between banks and cannabis money, it shuns cannabis businesses from establishing a form of credit. This issue alone is why the industry operates only in cash with very few places to keep it. Also, this issue can do much harm to future relationships with other companies and businesses. If a cannabis business can not establish a credit history no lender or bank can help. That’s why it’s important to have an industry as big as cannabis have some form of credit being reported to credit companies. This will tell other lenders and banks that a particular business is profitable enough to pay back any loans.
What Will The Future Of Cannabis Banking Become
It’s wild to think that an industry that is generating a high volume of cash is being blocked from showing the reliability needed to secure lending. Some feel if the cannabis business can earn the trust of financial institutions by being transparent with its earnings. This may be a step to banks feeling more comfortable with working with a cash-intensive business. Hopefully, with federal cannabis reform, it will help push cannabis banking in the direction needed to help out the industry.
By: J. Phillip
Title: Will Marijuana Banking Be Apart Of Federal Cannabis Reform?
Sourced From: marijuanastocks.com/will-marijuana-banking-be-apart-of-federal-cannabis-reform/
Published Date: Tue, 09 Feb 2021 18:34:56 +0000
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